High-nickel materials heat up "restless"
High-end models are equipped with high-nickel batteries, such as Mercedes-Benz EQS, BMW i3, Audi Q4 e-tron, NIO ET7, Zhiji L7, and Volkswagen ID. 4 CROZZ, Chevrolet Bolt EUV, Cadillac LYRIQ... The global mainstream mid-to-high-end models all favor high-nickel batteries. Recently, many material companies have developed high-nickel materials, and their popularity is heating up.
On July 20th, Dangsheng Technology held a global launch of strategic new products. Among them, an ultra-high nickel and cobalt-free material of the phase adopts a special structural design, and at the same time cooperates with multi-element ppm-level synergistic doping, body-boundary-surface multi-level modification and other new technologies, it has successfully solved the shortcomings of ultra-high nickel cathode materials in terms of capacity, rate, cycle, safety, etc., and the technical performance indicators have been greatly improved, which has been highly recognized by domestic and foreign customers.
It is understood that Dangsheng Technology's ultra-high nickel multi-material products have been widely used in European and American lithium battery manufacturers, including various types of power batteries including 4680 large cylindrical batteries . With the large-scale application of ultra-high nickel multi-component materials and cobalt-free materials, Dangsheng Technology will gain more room for growth in the global high-end power battery field.
Just two days before the press conference of Dangsheng Technology, the " Lithium Battery High Nickel Ternary Cathode Material Project " was built by Changzhou Beterui New Material Technology Co., Ltd. "The mass production ceremony was held. The project plans to build an annual output of 50,000 tons of high-nickel ternary cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries. The construction started in April last year. At present, the shipment of 4M samples has been successfully completed, and it has passed the PPAP audit at one time. officially entered the mass production stage.
In addition, Jialian Technology recently stated in an investigation by an investment institution that the company's high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel products have been applied in batches to large cylindrical batteries, and orders are available both domestically and overseas. GEM also said on the interactive platform that high nickel ternary or quaternary precursor battery materials can significantly improve the energy density of lithium batteries and greatly increase the cruising range of new energy vehicles . At present, the company has developed and designed a variety of ultra-high nickel or ultra-high voltage precursors for batteries with a range of 1,000 kilometers.
Industry data show that global shipments of high-nickel ternary materials will reach 300,000 tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 120%, accounting for about 42% of the total shipments of ternary cathode materials. Dangsheng Technology, Rongbai Technology, Bamo Technology, Bertray, Long-term Lithium Technology, Zhenhua New Materials and other leading ternary material companies have significantly increased their shipments of high-nickel cathode materials.
From the perspective of supply, according to the agency's statistics, the total output of domestic high-nickel materials (811 and NCA type) alone will reach 152,000 tons in 2021, an increase of more than 220% year-on-year. In the first half of 2022, the cumulative output of domestic high-nickel materials (8 series and above) has reached 112,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of more than 83%. The industry predicts that the global output of high-nickel ternary materials will exceed 600,000 tons in 2022, and the global output of high-nickel materials will be close to 3.5 million tons in 2030.
From the perspective of application demand, ternary batteries currently occupy the mainstream position in overseas markets, and high-nickel technology routes are mostly used in mid-to-high-end models. According to the Adamas Intelligence data report, in 2021, the global installed capacity of power batteries for passenger vehicles will reach 286.2GWh, of which the installed capacity of high-nickel batteries (NCM6 series and above, NCA, NCMA) will be 154.55GWh, accounting for 54%, mainly from Europe and the United States. area.
From the perspective of the layout of battery companies, whether it is domestic Ningde Times , BYD , Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech , Funeng Technology , Honeycomb Energy, Envision Power, Lishen Battery, BAK Power, Penghui Energy, or foreign Many power battery manufacturers, including LG New Energy, Panasonic, SKI, Samsung SDI, etc., are deploying high-nickel products, including NCM811/NCA, and even NCMA batteries with a nickel content of 90%.
Soochow Securities stated in the research report that from the perspective of the whole industry, in 2022, with the increase in the volume of pure electric platform models of overseas car companies and the mass production of 4680 large cylindrical batteries, it is expected that the share of high nickel will further increase, and it will be obvious in the second quarter of 2022. accelerate. It is estimated that the battery output of CATL will reach 300GWh in 2022, including nearly 100GWh of high-nickel batteries, and the demand for high-nickel cathode materials alone will reach 170,000 tons.
The industry is very optimistic about the future development prospects of high-nickel ternary. Some institutions predict that by 2025, the penetration rate of high-nickel ternary in domestic power batteries will reach 62%, and the compound annual growth rate will reach 95%; the penetration rate in global power batteries will reach 66%, and the compound annual growth rate in the next 5 years The average growth rate will reach 90%.
Among them, NCM811 and NCA will become the mainstream varieties of high nickel materials. CITIC Futures expects that by 2025, the increase in the market share of high-nickel ternary batteries will be mainly reflected in the high-nickel 8-series and NCA.
From the perspective of the industry, future high-nickel materials have energy density and cost advantages. Rongbai Technology said that as the nickel content is higher, the cobalt content is reduced, resulting in higher energy density and lower watt-hour cost than nickel in high voltage. High-nickel materials are also developing in the direction of high voltage, which will further improve the energy density, and the unit cost may be lower than that of medium-nickel high-voltage materials.
According to the research data of Huajing Industry, as the follow-up high-nickel process matures and CTP and other technologies begin to be commercialized, the cost reduction curve of high-nickel ternary will be steeper. It is expected that the cost of high-nickel ternary will be lower than 5/6 in 2023-2024. It is a ternary, and the cost in 2027-2028 will be lower than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries , and the final theoretical cost is 10-15% lower than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
It is worth noting that as the high-nickel route becomes an important technological development direction of power batteries, the demand for nickel will also usher in a blowout in the future. In 2019, only 9% of the world's nickel was used to produce batteries, and 80% of the nickel was used to produce stainless steel. In the future, more nickel resources will be used for battery production. BenchmarkMineral Intelligence predicts that by 2030, global demand for nickel for power batteries will soar from 139,000 tons in 2020 to 1.4 million tons, accounting for 30% of total nickel demand.
Today, automakers and battery companies such as Tesla , CATL, LG New Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, SKI, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech are actively grabbing nickel. Market participants believe that the competition for nickel in the industry will intensify in the future.
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